UAH CMER » Freight, Logistics, & Transportation

Development of a Method to Forecast Freight Demand Arising from the Final Demand Sector and Examination of Federal Data to Analyze Transportation Demand for Local Area Through Trips

lauren — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 18:48:36 +0000

The research described in this report, Development Of A Method To Forecast Freight Demand Arising From The Final Demand Sector, describes a framework and a research approach to achieve insight into significant components of freight transportation in Alabama and the U.S. The initial objective was to develop the ability to projecting freight traffic arising from retail sales to households or to the final demand sector of the economy. Normally, this involves shipments from distribution centers and bonded warehouses to retailers located in the state’s population centers. The research demonstrates that this final leg of a shipment’s journey to the consumer is growing very fast and evolving rapidly.

Major retail centers were identified in all of Alabama’s cities with populations of over 25,000. A selection of the retailers in these communities was chosen for a detailed analysis of their distribution network. The researchers conducted interviews to gather data about how each network operates. The information collected from the survey included the geographical region served, the physical and operational characteristics of the network, volume of traffic, and anticipated future traffic volumes. The survey revealed that most distribution networks serving Alabama can either be characterized as hub and spoke or route-based. The survey also uncovered many unique characteristics of each network.

Finally, researchers determined how to allocate freight traffic arising from the final demand sector to Alabama counties. Several variables were tested including population, employment, payroll and personal income. Through regression analysis, it was found that total personal income of residents in a county appeared to work best with population the second best predictor.

Supply chain strategies were documented and mapped for various retail and commercial networks. This information became very valuable in the ensuing communication of the final mile discussions with ALDOT and other transportation stakeholders in the state.

Research Project 930-697 Final Demand Pass Through – Final Report
TRB Conference 2011 Poster Presentation

Development of a Freight Database for Use in Allocating Freight Traffic to Sub-State Traffic Zones

lauren — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 16:49:08 +0000

The use of national freight data at the local level is challenging due to the high level of aggregation and because freight data is proprietary. Many national freight databases aggregate information to the individual states or major communities. Most methods of utilizing freight data depend on applying proxy factors to allocate the freight to the system. The planning factors used in freight system analysis must be capable of describing the freight generation and attraction characteristics of the region. The use of employment as a planning factor has come under scrutiny mainly due to the inability of the factor to accurately estimate the effect of productivity improvements made by a company to increase production without increasing employment. This research has shown that local economic data from many different sources can successfully be used to allocate freight volume into smaller zones from the future freight traffic volumes provided by highly aggregated national databases. The output of this effort is used as input to the modeling of freight, and the integration of that freight into existing transportation planning and modeling activities at the state and local level. This has been accomplished in Alabama at the statewide and metropolitan planning organization level, resulting in validated transportation models that integrate freight into the planning activity. The methodology described in this paper can easily be replicated by other states and metropolitan planning organizations.

Development of a Freight Database for Use in Allocating Freight Traffic to Sub-State Traffic Zones

Using a Federal Database and Local Industry Sector Knowledge to Develop Future Freight Forecasts

lauren — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:54:29 +0000

In smaller urban areas, freight transportation is often not explicitly modeled, but is included implicitly as a percentage of non-home-based trips, which has nothing to do with the actual behavior of freight. This incorporation has the potential to develop future traffic forecasts that are unreasonable and potentially will lead to poor roadway infrastructure investment decisions. The federal freight flow data contained in the Freight Analysis Framework Version 2.2 (FAF2) Database has the potential to improve the forecast year accuracy, however, use of the database itself is often suspect and the large aggregation level of the database usually makes it impractical. This paper examines a process to systematically improve the forecasted volumes from the FAF2 using local industry sector knowledge to a potential level that is acceptable for urban transportation modeling. A case study is shown using the state of Alabama to demonstrate the process of adjusting the FAF2 data to account for industries located in the community. The paper concludes that with appropriate adjustment and application, the FAF2 database can be used for in forecasting future travel demand in a smaller urban area.

USING A FEDERAL DATABASE AND LOCAL INDUSTRY SECTOR KNOWLEDGE TO DEVELOP FUTURE FREIGHT FORECASTS

Alabama Statewide Freight Study and Action Plan

lauren — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 18:51:43 +0000

The Alabama Statewide Freight Study and Action Plan was a study initiated by the Alabama Department of Transportation (ALDOT) recognizing the need for research in freight transportation. Research included identifying freight related constraints and how potential improvements to the State’s transportation system can facilitate freight mobility as well as the associated interrelationships between economic growth and transportation infrastructure. The study team was composed of the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) Office for Freight, Logistics and Transportation and the consulting firm of J. R. Wilburn and Associates, Inc. Current and future multimodal freight movements into and out of the state, as well as the condition, operations and safety of the multimodal system, were analyzed. All modes of freight movement—truck, rail, air and water— were examined as a part of this study. Although there is a diversity of freight on all of the state’s highway facilities, it is apparent that certain commodities use specific facilities more often. A review of specific commodities and routes taken was helpful in understanding deficiencies along a route. Similarly, using criteria to determine congestion, safety and truck concentrations on the Alabama Highway Network assisted in identifying deficient locations in the freight highway network. Understanding the total character of freight movements along a corridor—its prevalent commodities and potential safety and operational constraints—was helpful in refining possible recommendations and improvements for increasing system efficiency and safety.

The study findings were intended to provide information to a number of parties—decision makers at ALDOT, other agencies and the private sector—as they continue looking for ways to accommodate the ever increasing volume of freight on the state’s highways. ALDOT will take a lead role in ensuring the accumulated data on freight movement is maintained for use by the Department and others. In particular, ALDOT will be able to use the information regarding existing and future needs in developing its construction program.

Statewide Freight Study Final Report

The Development of an Integrated Freight Planning Framework

lauren — Sat, 01 May 2010 17:05:22 +0000

Using national freight data at the local level is challenging due to the high level of aggregation, its proprietary nature and the need to apply proxy factors to allocate freight for system planning. Planning factors used in freight system analysis must be capable of describing the freight generation and attraction characteristics of the region. Employment as a planning factor has come under scrutiny due to the inability of this factor to accurately estimate the effect of productivity improvements made by a company to increase production without increasing employment. Economic data from different sources can be used to allocate freight volume into smaller zones from freight traffic volumes provided by national databases and this output can be used to model freight and integrate freight into existing transportation planning activities at the state and local level.

The Development of an Integrated Freight Planning Framework

An Approach to Collecting Local Freight Information

lauren — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 17:02:00 +0000

The use of local freight data in transportation planning is essential to ensure accuracy in the travel demand modeling process. However, unlike passenger transportation, where extensive research work has been performed into the collection and use of household travel data, limited research work has been performed to collect and use local freight travel data. This paper examines a structure developed to collect and summarize local freight data in an urban area to be used in the transportation planning process within a Metropolitan Planning Organization. The paper concludes that the appropriate collection and analysis of freight data can be performed and the output can be used to support transportation planning activities.

Approach to Collecting Local Freight Information

Developing Freight Analysis Zones at a State Level: A Cluster Analysis Approach

lauren — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 15:28:52 +0000

The ability to plan and forecast freight demand to support transportation infrastructure investment decisions is limited by the lack of available data at a level of detail that is meaningful to the transportation planner. This paper develops an initial methodology for developing Freight Analysis Zones (FAZs) at a sub-state level to facilitate use of the data from the Freight Analysis Framework 2 (FAF2) database and industry surveys. The FAF2 database is based upon the Commodity Flow Survey and is a comprehensive public freight knowledgebase. However, with 114 zones nationwide (most states have one or two zones), the ability of a state or Metropolitan Planning Organization transportation planner to use the data without significant disaggregation is limited. Currently, there is no consensus regarding the means to disaggregate the original FAF2 data. This paper addresses this problem by developing a systematic method for partitioning a state into meaningful zones that support effective freight transportation planning and analysis. The paper tests the application of FAZs to disaggregate freight data for use in a statewide by model through a case study in Alabama. The paper concludes that FAZs can be effectively used without degrading the quality of the forecasts.

Developing Freight Analysis Zones at a State Level TRB

Modular Approach for Rapidly Developing Simulation Models for Analyzing and Evaluating Port Operations

lauren — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 17:00:05 +0000

This paper presents a modular approach for rapidly developing simulation models that can analyze and evaluate existing port operations, changes and expansions. Simulation is an inexpensive insurance against costly mistakes involving capital expenditures, but many managers still perceive simulation to be a costly and time consuming option. The underlying purpose of this research has been the development of rapid reaction modular simulation that provides quick answers and is flexible enough to be used in multiple situations. Applications of this approach have been completed at the Alabama State Docks and the Huntsville International Intermodal Center where it has shown to be possible to rapidly construct the model in segments, one submodel at a time. Consequently, each submodel can be debugged and verified separately, thus reducing the overall development time. Included in this paper are a description of the modular modeling framework, descriptions of the five model application implementations and conclusions.

Modular Approach for Rapidly Developing Simulation Models for Analyzing and Evaluating Port Operations

Transportation Infrastructure in Alabama: Finding and Filling the Holes

lauren — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:07:04 +0000

This research built upon previous work on the development of tools to bridge the gaps in the analysis and understanding of the relationships between economic growth and transportation infrastructure in Alabama. The tasks performed under this contract included:

Development of the Integrated Freight Planning Framework including Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Modal Split and Assignment and Analysis of System Performance Measures,
Development of the Alabama Transportation Infrastructure Model version 2 with the addition of the rail and waterway networks,
An evaluation of alternative transportation modes for improving transportation and freight flow, and
The enhancement and expansion of the application of continuous improvement principles for port operations

The availability and accuracy of freight data is the key to making informed decisions on infrastructure investment and policy issues that affect the effectiveness and efficiency of the freight transportation system. Available and accurate freight data is critical to the evaluation of options to mitigate congestion, improve economic competitiveness, facilitate the effective use of land planning, optimization of modal activity, improve safety and security, reduce fuel consumption and enhance air quality. Although data by itself does not ensure good decision-making, it is impossible to make informed decisions without valid data.

Researchers at UAHuntsville developed and implemented the Integrated Freight Planning Framework (IFPF) which produces a direct freight forecast based upon industry sector economic activity. An industry sector based forecast offers an improvement to a forecast based upon a percentage of overall traffic flow used by transportation planners throughout the U.S. The IFPF establishes a direct relationship between the major industry sectors in a region and the freight traffic generated as a result of industrial sector activity. Value of Products Shipped, Household Income, Employment and Population are used as indicators of sector economic activity in the relationships for forecasted freight traffic. The ultimate goal of this research was to provide tools and information that can be used by state and MPO level transportation planners and decision makers. These tools should improve the results of analysis and reasonable decisions on program and infrastructure necessary to improve the overall function and performance of the transportation system for passenger, transit and freight users.

2009 DOT – Finding & Filling the Holes – Final Report

Using FAF2 Port Data to Model Freight in a Medium Sized Port City

lauren — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:46:33 +0000

The ability to accurately incorporate freight moving to and from a port into an urban model is difficult in both small and large cities. To address this issue, this paper presents an application in which the Freight Analysis Framework Version 2.2 (FAF2) Port Data was incorporated into a traditional urban transportation planning model for a small/medium sized community (Mobile, AL). The paper discusses the application of the data integration steps and the issues encountered during the application. The paper concludes that port data can be incorporated into the traditional planning process, but special consideration must be made to understand the local shipping network.

Using FAF2 Port Data to Model Freight in a Medium Sized Port City.docx